Wednesday, August 02, 2006

Bring on the Cigars: Cuba Without Castro

Can you even imagine a world without the little Communist that could? For most of us (probably all of us reading this website) there has never been a Cuba without Castro. There also has never been a shortage of rumors about his immanent demise. Well apparently some of the rumors may be true.

According to Slate: "On July 31, just days from his 80th birthday, intestinal bleeding apparently forced Castro to undergo dangerous surgery, —dangerous enough to compel him to hand power to his younger brother Raul."

Sure, Castro ain't dead yet, but for the first time in more than four decades, someone else had power (no matter how temporary) in Cuba. The proverbial cat is out of the proverbial bag, and it's...proverbially impossible to put it back in the...proverbial bag (I think I lost the analogy somewhere in there.)

So, what would it mean should there be regime change in Cuba? It's not as if we're still fighting the Cold War. The Soviet Union has fallen, we won bad guys lost etc. There will be no more Cuban Missile Crisises (what the hell is the plural of Crisis?). What is it that we (as average Americans) have to gain by the democratization (or at least the de-Castrofying) of Cuba.

The biggest thing we have to gain from Castro's demise is the (however slight) weakening of our Venezuelan friend Chavez. As the only consistently anti-U.S. voice in the America's, Chavez uses Castro and the legend of his revolution as a rallying cry. The loss of Castro and theoretical un-revolution of Cuba, could help reinforce free markets in Latin America and weaken Chavez' influence among those nations.

As the middle east continues to become less and less stable, South America's oil will become increasingly more important to us. An ally or (more realistically) a less anti-American leader in Havana could help us increase trade throughout the America's. Raising the economic viability of all those countries, while helping us secure our own economic wellbeing. You see the future won't be about nation states, or even political schools of thought. The future is about trade blocs. The European Union has already proven this fact. An Asian bloc (led by either Japan or China) will start to form soon. We have to fulfill the promise that NAFTA showed. And a new face in Havana could very well help us do that.

And besides...I like cigars...and I hear they have great ones in Cuba.

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